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The Next Platform Shift

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What it is: Apple Silicon represents the next platform shift in the computing world.

Back int he early days of computers, the first popular operating system was CP/M-80, running on Z80 processors made by a company called Zilog. For several years, the business computing world settled on CP/M-80 running on Z80 processors using software like WordStar and VisiCalc.

Z80 processors were technically known as 8-bit processors, which were just fine until Intel came along with the 8088 processor, which was a 16-bit processor that offered more power.

IBM adopted the 8088 processor for their IBM PC and paired it with two operating systems: CP/M-86 and PC-DOS. The expectation was that CP/M-86 would naturally be the successor to CP/M-80, but the cost of CP/M-86 was higher than PC-DOS, so PC-DOS became the new standard operating system for personal computing.

PC-DOS was actually designed as a CP/M-80 clone that Microsoft bought from an individual for $50,000. Then they turned this CP/M-80 clone into PC-DOS for IBM.

Intel eventually shifted to 32-bit processors with the 80386 processor. This provided more power that allowed PC-DOS to become MS-DOS, which eventually became Windows.

Originally, Windows needed MS-DOS to run but eventually Windows became its own operating system. Windows and Intel processors dominated the personal computing market for decades that everyone referred to this synergy as Wintel (Windows and Intel).

However, just as the world shifted from Z80 processors to Intel processors, so is the world now shifting from Intel processors to ARM-based processors. The basic idea behind ARM processors is that they far less power than Intel processors. However for the longest time, ARM processors could not compete in power with Intel processors. That’s why ARM processors were mostly used in mobile computers like smartphones and tablets that needed long battery life but didn’t need massive processing power.

That’s changing with Apple Silicon. Apple licenses ARM processors to create their own processors and Apple Silicon not only uses less energy than Intel processors, but also offers more power as well. With this combination of more power and less energy consumption, ARM processors are poised to take over the next wave of computing.

Apple is shifting the Macintosh to Apple Silicon, which will reportedly allow laptops to offer 15-20 hours of battery life compared to 10-12 hours of battery life for Intel processors. Given the choice between less power and less battery life (Intel) or more power and more battery life (ARM), it’s easy to see where the future is heading.

When the world shifted from Z80 processors to 8088 Intel processors, it also shifted operating systems. Now as the world shifts from Intel processors to ARM processors, it’s going to shift once more to a new operating system.

That new operating system may be macOS, iOS, or Android, but it won’t be Windows. Windows is still tied to Intel processors although Microsoft does offer a version fo Windows that runs on ARM processors. However, this version of Windows on ARM processors has not attracted third-party support and lacks compatibility with current Windows applications.

Apple can move away from Intel easily, but Microsoft cannot. That means each passing year will see Apple Silicon far surpassing Intel processors while macOS and iOS far surpass Windows in ease of use.

The future is mobile and wearable computing and the future is ARM. If you want a bright future, just follow the trends and the money.

Killing Third-Party Development Tools

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What it is: Apple announced that the Macintosh will shift from Intel processors to Apple’s own processors.

Apple once relied on Motorola 68000 processors before shifting to PowerPC processors. Then Apple shifted from PowerPC processors to Intel processors. Now Apple is shifting once more from Intel processors to their own ARM-based processors.

While this shift is necessary for Apple to continue innovating the Macintosh, it’s going to rip the guts out of third-party development tools. Right now, Apple has plans to support the transition from Intel-based Macs to Apple’s own processor-based Macs. That means all of Apple’s own software needs to run on both Intel and ARM processors.

The primary development tool for creating iOS apps is Apple’s own Xcode, which will be capable of running on both Intel and ARM processors. Xcode will also be able to create universal binaries so you can write a program once and it will be capable of running on both Intel and ARM-based Macs.

So Xcode will be able to run on the new ARM-based Macs and create apps for ARM-based Macs. That means every third-party development tool is in trouble.

There’s along list of third-party development tools that offer different advantages over Xcode. Xamarin lets you use C#, which is Microsoft’s official language. By using Xamarin, you can create iOS apps on a Windows PC.

There’s also Xojo, which is a Visual Basic clone along with Livecode, which is HyperCard clone. Of course there are a host of other third-party development tools as well, but the problem is that each development tool will need to run on Intel and ARM-based Macs, and they’ll need to create both Intel and ARM-based binaries.

Guess what? Most of these third-party development tools won’t be able to do it, at least not initially. That means Xcode will be the only option. That also means there’s little reason to rely on third-party development tools since they’ll be late to the transition and they won’t offer all the features you need to create apps for the Macintosh.

The third-party development tool market is now in serious trouble because why would you bother working with a tool that won’t run on ARM-based Macs and won’t let you create Intel and ARM binaries?

Xamarin might survive since Microsoft can likely get their tool to run on ARM-based Macs, but smaller third-party development tools like Xojo and Livecode probably won’t make the shift. That means they’ll likely fade away over time.

So if you’re looking to develop apps, your only choice really is Xcode. Nothing else will offer the features that Xcode will offer from day one, which means Xcode should be the only development tool worth learning.

Apple’s shift to ARM-based Macs is exciting because it means the Macintosh will gain a tremendous amount of features along with longer battery life and lower cost. While the future of the Macintosh is bright, the future of other development tools is not.

Look for the demise of many third-party development tools that fail to make the transition from Intel to ARM-based Macs. It happened before and it will happen again. The Macintosh will survive. Third-party development tools probably will not so abandon now and start learning Xcode today.

Your programming future just might depend on it.

Abandoning 32-Bit Applications in Catalina

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What it is: 32-bit applications will no longer work in macOS Catalina and many software companies are abandoning the Macintosh.

Operating system updates are supposed to be improvements, and in many ways, they are. However, the biggest problem with the latest macOS Catalina update is that it finally abandons support for 32-bit applications. That means older Macintosh programs are most in danger of not making the upgrade to a 64-bit applications since this would require a major rewrite of the software.

Rather than rewrite their software from scratch, many companies are simply abandoning the Macintosh instead. SuperCard, the first HyperCard clone, is based on old 32-bit code and cannot be updated to run on macOS Catalina without a major rewrite.

Since SuperCard is owned by a smaller company, that company can’t afford to rewrite their entire program as a 64-bit application. Another company running into this difficulty is Inspiration, which sells an outliner/mind mapping program that has been around for decades.

Like SuperCard, Inspiration is based on old code and the company doesn’t see the worth in rewriting their application from scratch. AccountEdge, a small business accounting program, is yet another 32-bit application that the company cannot afford to rewrite as a 64-bit application.

For users dependent on older 32-bit applications, the choice isn’t easy. Either avoid upgrading to macOS Catalina (and future updates to macOS), or find an alternative.

As older software fades away, this could be the perfect time for developers to start creating alternatives to SuperCard, Inspiration, AccountEdge, and other 32-bit applications that will never be upgraded to run on macOS Catalina.

Of course, if these older 32-bit applications had a huge market share, the money would be there to justify rewriting the entire program from scratch. The fact that these companies deem it unprofitable to rewrite their programs is a clear signal that there’s not much of a market there in the first place.

Once macOS Catalina and future updates kill off 32-bit applications for good, the only ones left will be those capable of running on macOS Catalina. This shakeout of applications is unfortunate but inevitable.

Just remember that with every obstacle there comes an opportunity. It just takes a little bit of creativity to discover what that opportunity might be and whether it’s worth your time to grab it.

Apple’s Changing Business Model

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What it is: Analysts keep worrying if slowing smartphone sales will negatively impact Apple, but Apple keeps changing its business mode.

At one time, people updated their smartphones almost every year, fueling the growth of the smartphone market. However, smartphone sales have been slowing down lately, which makes people immediately worry that Apple will be in trouble.

Of course, Apple has always been reliant on a single product for the majority of its revenue, but they’ve always managed to introduce a new product to make up for the decline.

Initially, Apple survived solely on the Macintosh. Even though the Macintosh never dominated the personal computer market, sales of Macs kept Apple alive.

Yet the Macintosh was never going to take over from cheap PCs, so Apple started making money from their next product, the iPod, which helped fuel the rise of iTunes digital music downloads.

The iPod proved so popular along with iTunes digital music downloads that Apple dominated this market for years. Microsoft even tried to crack this market with the Zune, which flopped despite being a decent product.

Then as smartphones started to appear and replace the need for the iPod, Apple introduced the iPhone, which has now led the bulk of the company’s revenue for the past few years.

Now that smartphone sales are slowing, the next business model of Apple will be services. That includes the growing revenue they’ll earn from Apple Pay along with the Apple Card and services like Apple Music. Apple is no longer dependent on hardware sales but has switched to services to earn the bulk of their income.

Now it doesn’t matter if smartphone sales slow down. Just as long as people continue using iPhones, iPads, the Apple Watch, and the Macintosh, they’ll likely tap into Apple’s numerous services and continue sending profits towards Apple.

Apple is no longer dependent on the Macintosh any more, just as they’re no longer dependent on the iPod or the iPhone. The future of Apple is services for the near future. That will only continue growing whenever Apple introduces their next major product line, which could be augmented reality smart glasses or self-driving cars. Whatever happens, Apple will keep growing and adapting.

To learn more about the changing business model of Apple over the years, click here.

The Future Mac is the iPad

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What it is: Rumor has suggested that Apple will replace Intel processors with their own ARM processors, but Apple has no reason to do so.

At one time, Apple relied on PowerPC processors while PCs relied on faster and more powerful Intel processors. So Apple shifted from PowerPC processors to Intel processors.

To do this, they created Rosetta, a software emulation layer that allowed Intel processors to run PowerPC programs. Then developers crated fat binaries that contained both PowerPC and Intel code, allowing programs to run on either older PowerPC Macs or newer Intel Macs.

Now the latest rumor is that Apple will soon replace Intel processors for their own ARM processors on the Macintosh. However, that makes little sense even though Apple’s ARM processors are now getting faster and more powerful than equivalent Intel processors.

If Apple switched to ARM processors for the Macintosh, they the reasoning goes that they’ll have more powerful and energy efficient computers. However, doing so means Apple will sacrifice Windows compatibility and need to rely on an emulation layer to allow Intel programs to run on ARM processors.

Apple needed to shift to Intel processors because PowerPC processors were falling behind. Today, Apple does not need to shift to ARM processors because they’re already using ARM processors in the iPhone and iPad. Most kids today are growing up using smartphones and tablets while sales of PCs are slowly falling among consumers.

Since many kids today use smartphones and tablets and not traditional PCs like Windows PCs or even the Macintosh, there’s little reason for Apple to switch the Macintosh to ARM processors because people are no longer going to want a traditional PC. They’re going to want mobile devices like the iPad.

Today’s iPad is nearly as powerful as today’s laptops. In another generation or two, the iPad will be more powerful than equivalent laptops, which will only accelerate the shift away from PCs to mobile devices like tablets. That means Apple has little reason to prop up the fading world of PCs and has far more incentive to keep improving ARM processors for the iPad.

Creating iPadOS is Apple’s way of defining the future. With a dedicated operating system for tablets, Apple is going to make the iPad even more powerful with each generation. Combined with the growing power of ARM processors as well, and more people will simply buy iPads instead of laptop Macintoshes.

Therefore, the iPad is already the ARM equivalent of the Macintosh. The Macintosh, like PCs in general, are slowly fading away while mobile devices like tablets are continuing to grow. The future is clearly the iPad, not the Macintosh because the future is mobile and not desktop/laptop PCs no matter what operating system they might be running.

Just ask a mainframe of minicomputer user how well their favorite devices are holding up against PCs and that’s the future of PCs against mobile computing.

If you want the power and energy efficiency of an ARM processor, get an iPad. For many people, the iPad can already replace a traditional PC. In another generation or two, the iPad will be able to replace more PCs, not less.

The Macintosh has a limited future and Apple knows it. The iPad is clearly the future, and Apple knows that too. If you want to cling to the past, stick with a traditional PC. If you’re a child of today growing up in a world of smartphones and tablets, who never or rarely uses a traditional PC, you’ll likely never want a traditional PC.

Older people will cling to PCs. Younger people will cling to mobile computing. Eventually the older people will be a smaller part of the market and younger people will be a larger part of the market. It’s just logic, and that sums up the future of the Macintosh and Intel processors.

To learn more about the future of the iPad, click here.

Competing Against Apple

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What it is: Apple adds new features to macOS all the time, and many of those features compete against third-party developers.

If you’re an independent developer, how do you compete against Apple? The simple answer is how you compete against any bigger company. You offer a better product.

The latest macOS Catalina will offer a feature called Sidecar, which will allow a Macintosh to use an iPad as a second screen wirelessly. This directly competes against a product called Duet Display, which also lets you use an iPad as a second screen for a Macintosh.

So how can Duet Display compete against the free Sidecar feature? The answer is easy.

Sidecar only works with the latest macOS Catalina and with the latest iPad models. If you have an older version of macOS or an older version of an iPad, then you won’t be able to use Sidecar.

In addition, Sidecar only works with the latest Macintosh models. If you have an older Macintosh, you won’t be able to use Sidecar either.

So Sidecar is a great feature but only for those with the latest equipment. That’s where a product like Duet Display can offer more features.

First of all, Duet Display works by connect a USB cable between a computer and the iPad, which makes a wired connection less convenient (because you need a cable) but also faster and more reliable.

Second, Duet Display can work with older versions of macOS and older Macintosh models. Duet Display can even work with Windows PCs so you can use your iPad as a second screen for a Windows computer.

Even better, Duet Display works with older iPad models. That means Duet Display offers compatibility with more devices than Sidecar while offering a faster and more reliable connection through a cable (at the expense of needing a cable).

Some people might be perfectly happy using Sidecar but Sidecar won’t necessarily displace Duet Display or similar products. Apple has no interest in supporting older Macintosh models or iPad models, nor do they care about supporting Windows PCs either.

Duet Display is like Sidecar but with more options. So if you ever want to compete against a big company like Apple, simply offer more features to reach a broader market.

Sidecar may be free, but if you don’t meet those exact requirements to use Sidecar, you’ll have no choice but to rely on Duet Display or a similar product.

It’s easy to compete against larger companies as an independent developer since you just need to go deeper in features than the larger company may wish to do.

Competing against larger companies may not be easy, but it’s not impossible. Sometimes a free option like Sidecar can actually promote greater awareness of a competing product.

Once people realize what Sidecar can do, they may find they can’t use it or that it’s too limited for their purposes. Then they may find a product like Duet Display is better.

If you’re a third party developer, just focus on making the best product possible. Chances are good you’ll have a product someone will be willing to pay for. If not, then you’ll still have plenty of experience creating something worthwhile.

To learn more about Duet Display, click here.

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