Top Bananas | Tag Archives: Apple Car

States Moving on Self-Driving Vehicle Legislation

Posted on August 4, 2017 by admin Posted in Hardware, Software Leave a comment

What it is: Nevada is one of many states crafting laws to anticipate self-driving vehicles.

By the time the Federal government reacts, it’s usually too late. That’s why many states such as Nevada have already crafted legislation to deal with self-driving vehicles. States already can see the future that self-driving technology will be the future and they want to attract self-driving technology companies to test and deploy vehicles in their states to bring in revenue. While self-driving passenger cars may be the ultimate dream, it’s far likely that self-driving vehicles will appear much sooner in other areas.

One simple application of self-driving vehicles is within a limited domain such as a shuttle bus. By traversing a known road, self-driving technology just needs to deal with pedestrians and unexpected hazards like fallen trees or stalled vehicles. Otherwise a limited domain gives a self-driving vehicle a much greater chance of working properly.

Another possibility is self-driving long-distance trucks. Right now, long-distance trucks navigate highways, which are relatively simple with few pedestrians to worry about. The idea is to let self-driving technology handle long hauls across highways and then let human drivers handle the actual driving within streets leading to the ultimate loading or unloading area. Right now truck drivers are limited by the need to sleep, but self-driving technology would let drivers sleep while the truck drives itself across the highway at night where there would be fewer cars. This would allow trucks to drive themselves all night while the human driver sleeps.

Inevitably, self-driving technology will fail and kill someone. That’s why states need to pass legislation now for liability issues so self-driving technology doesn’t get stopped in the courts. Self-driving technology won’t be perfect, but it can be better than human drivers that cause accidents and kill more people than self-driving technology will ever do.

Many people predict that self-driving technology will arrive within ten to twenty years. Expect that to happen in half the time, but in limited environments such as shuttle buses or long-distance trucks. The self-driving world is coming soon and that’s going to uproot the current car industry such as car insurance companies, car dealers, and taxi cabs. Combine self-driving cars with ride-sharing and you get a future where today’s current car market simply won’t exist any more.

The future is coming and it’s clear. All you need to do is set aside your beliefs and see the future clearly without prejudice.

Apple’s Autonomous System Technology

Posted on August 2, 2017 by admin Posted in Business, Hardware, Software Leave a comment

What it is: Tim Cook recently mentioned autonomous systems technology that goes beyond just cars.

The iPhone completely disrupted the smartphone market, but rivals such as Huawei and Samsung now offer similar hardware while Android offers similar software to iOS. What will make the big difference this fall will be Apple’s inclusion of augmented reality that will dramatically separate the iPhone from any of its rivals. It will likely take at least a year or two for Android to catch up and by that time, Apple’s augmented reality goals will have just moved further ahead. In the smartphone market, augmented reality is going to be the key difference between the iPhone and iPad and everything else.

Curiously, rivals failed to see Apple’s long-term designs on augmented reality, even after Apple acquired several augmented reality companies. The future was clear for rivals to see Apple’s plans, yet they failed to notice the future occurring right in front of their eyes. Now the next major game-changer will occur with autonomous systems.

Most people think of autonomous systems as self-driving cars, but that’s just one option as Tim Cook hinted at during a recent financial conference. Since Tim Cook had earlier hinted about augmented reality, it’s likely that Apple is doing more than just developing a self-driving car in the same way that iOS was more than just a smartphone operating system.

If you want to see the danger of too narrowly focusing your vision, just look at how Microsoft fumbled their Windows Phone operating system. Windows Phone was a decent smartphone operating system, but as soon as it appeared, Apple introduced the iPad running iOS, and suddenly Microsoft realized they had designed Windows Phone strictly for smartphones. That caused Microsoft to rush Windows RT to the market for tablets, which was completely incompatible with Windows Phone on smartphones.

In comparison, Apple had designed iOS originally for the iPad but released the iPhone first. Apple looked at the long-term vision of a touch screen operating system that could adapt to different form factors. Microsoft simply reacted to the iPhone by developing Windows Phone and failed to recognize the future of tablets as well.

That’s why it’s unlikely that Apple is focused just on self-driving cars but as Time Cook hinted, on autonomous technology in general. Besides self-driving cars, what else could require autonomous control? Trucks are an obvious choice but what about trains, trolleys, monorail systems, and other forms of travel? Light rail mass transit, often called trolleys, are making a comeback in major cities as an alternative form of mass transit besides buses. Light rail would be far easier to create as an autonomous system since it can only travel on rails, but it still must watch out for obstacles such as cars or pedestrians cross its tracks.

Anything that moves could fall under the category of autonomous systems such as Roomba robotic vacuum cleaners, which also points to robots in general. It’s highly unlikely that Apple will invest in technology solely for self-driving cars in the same way that Microsoft developed Windows Phone as an operating system solely for smartphones. Most likely Apple is looking at robotics as part of their autonomous technology research.

After all, robots need to navigate an office, home, or warehouse. Robotic security guards need to navigate around a shopping mall or streets. Robots need to know how to navigate stairs and pedestrians along with cars and fixed obstacles like walls and light posts. To narrow research to just self-driving cars is too limiting. Autonomous technology is more than just self-driving cars but robotics in general. Robots need to fly, roll, crawl, or walk around the world, and that requires autonomous technology.

So it’s likely that Tim Cook is hitting about Apple moving into robotics with their autonomous technology. Self-driving cars are just one form of robotics, but it’s not the only form. Apple probably doesn’t want to limit themselves to just self-driving cars in the same way that Microsoft limited Windows Phone just to smartphones. What Tim Cook has hinted is that Apple’s future is looking towards robotics where self-driving cars are just one form of autonomous technology.

The future of Apple isn’t a self-driving car alone, but robotics in general. While it may take years before we see an Apple robot, that’s the direction they’re heading, not just self-driving cars. Until autonomous technology appears in all forms, we can wait for an Apple robot while using an iPhone or iPad with augmented reality. Then we can wonder how rivals failed to see the big picture and narrowed their focus to competing in a single sliver of a market while missing the overall market in general.

Killing the Future

Posted on July 22, 2017 by admin Posted in Business Leave a comment

What it is: Chevrolet may stop selling the Volt hybrid.

Many people think that companies suddenly experience bad luck and go out of business through no fault of their own. The truth is that most companies create their own bad luck and fail solely due to their inability to predict the future that’s clearly visible right in front of them.

When Microsoft shifted the world from MS-DOS to Windows, many companies were slow to make the transition, assuming that since the world still used MS-DOS, that the world would always need MS-DOS. That’s why dBASE, WordPerfect, and Lotus 1-2-3 had no rush in releasing Windows versions of their products. This created a vacuum that Microsoft filled with Microsoft Access, Microsoft Word, and Microsoft Excel. Not surprisingly, the world switched to Windows faster than people expected and embraced the new Windows programs at the expense of the old MS-DOS programs.

Lotus 1-2-3 didn’t switch to Windows fast enough because they were making too much money selling to the MS-DOS market. Microsoft, on the other hand, couldn’t sell many spreadsheets to the MS-DOS market so the Windows market looked wide open. That’s why Microsoft jumped at the chance to switch to Windows while Lotus 1-2-3 didn’t. By focusing on the short-term profits at the expense of long-term survivability, Lotus 1-2-3, dBASE, and WordPerfect sacrificed their future.

In the auto industry, it’s clear that cars powered by gas engines alone are not the future. Hybrids are part of the future since they can use both gas and electricity, but the real future is electricity with hybrids playing a crucial role in this transition. However, Chevrolet is now debating whether to stop making the Volt hybrid.

Chevrolet, like most auto makers, face a dilemma. They make most of their profits from trucks and SUVs, so from a short-term perspective, it makes sense to focus on that market. However, the long-term market involves hybrids, so Chevrolet would be foolish to abandon hybrids just to sell more trucks and SUVs in the same way that Kodak was foolish for abandoning digital photography in favor of film.

Even worse, car sales are falling as people avoid owning cars. This trend will only continue, which means that the entire business model of the auto industry is focused on the wrong market. The auto industry makes their money selling trucks and SUVs to people who want to buy them. What happens in the future when people don’t want to buy cars but use ride-sharing services instead? What happens when those few people who still want cars also want hybrid or electric cars instead of gas guzzlers?

That’s when you can expect the auto industry to go into shock again. Just as cheaper, smaller, more reliable Japanese imports shocked the Big Three auto makers who were content selling expensive, unreliable gas guzzlers, so you can expect ride-sharing services and declining car ownership to surprise the auto industry once more. For Chevrolet to abandon the Volt to pursue trucks and SUVs makes no sense, especially when companies like Tesla, Google, and Apple are moving towards electric cars.

The future is clear. Don’t sacrifice the future for short-term profits, yet that’s something everyone does to their detriment. When the auto industry does this again (and again), they always act surprised that they couldn’t see the future coming. Such blindness guarantees they’ll be surprised and shocked the next time the obvious appears once more.

Volvo Will No Longer Make Gas-Powered Cars After 2019

Posted on July 5, 2017 by admin Posted in Business, Hardware, Software Leave a comment

What it is: Volvo announced that after 2019, they will only sell cars that have an electric motor in them.

Volvo can see the future, partly because they’re now owned by a Chinese company and China is plagued with air pollution partly coming from gas-powered cars. China’s air quality is so bad in the big cities that China has the largest number of Parkinson’s Disease in the world. China must either clean up its air or literally kill all its citizens.

That’s why Volvo announced that the future after 2019 will involve either all-electric cars or hybrids. Hybrids can ease the transition to electric cars but the future is definitely no longer gas. If the auto industry plans to shift away from gas, what will happen to the world of gas stations? They’ll need to convert to fast-charging electric charging stations instead. Just as you now pay for gas, you’ll need to pay for electricity to recharge your car. Whether that will be cheaper than gas won’t matter as much as electricity won’t be as polluting as car emissions.

(Of course the real question is how will that electricity be generated? If it’s done by coal-burning plants that pollute the air, then the savings in air quality from electric cars will need to offset that pollution created by power plants. The difference is that power plant emissions can be relatively isolated while car emissions follow cars wherever they go.)

Look at the ripple effect electric motors will have in the future. The way we drive tomorrow won’t look like the way we drive today. Expect too see fewer cars on the road (thanks to ride-sharing services), fewer accidents (thanks to self-driving car technology), and fewer car dealers because fewer people want or will need to own their own car.

This is why Apple, Google, and Tesla are charging ahead in the self-driving technology field because they know it will be profitable. Whether the Apple Car becomes a product or not, the research learning about self-driving technology will prove valuable in itself. If Apple never releases the Apple Car, they’ll have the know-how to create an integrated experience for cars that will only benefit them in the future when they further develop CarPlay as an entertainment option in cars.

Apple, Google, and Tesla know the future. Even Blackberry is shifting towards self-driving technology with their real-time operating system, QNX. Strangely, one major company that seems to be ignoring self-driving technology is Microsoft.

Without self-driving technology experience, Microsoft won’t be able to benefit from the coming self-driving technology breakthroughs because they won’t have any experience working with self-driving technology. Why Microsoft seems to be deliberately avoiding self-driving technology makes little sense since they’re searching artificial intelligence and self-driving cars is just another aspect of artificial intelligence and machine learning.

What Microsoft could learn from self-driving cars would directly apply to their research in machine learning for other fields like voice recognition. Avoiding self-driving car technology research is like avoiding the mobile computing market.

Most likely there will be no single winner in the self-driving technology market. The Apple Car isn’t going to dominate the market because other companies will be offering roughly equal technology. The real treasure isn’t in trying to be the only or best self-driving car company in the world, but in learning what’s possible and knowing how to benefit from self-driving car technology.

The future is clear. Volvo can see the short-term future in electric cars. Apple, Google, and Tesla can see the longer future in self-driving technology, but both are right. The people who are wrong are the ones who always say the world won’t change and then get surprised when it does.

Apple Partners with Hertz

Posted on June 26, 2017 by admin Posted in Hardware, Software Leave a comment

What it is: Apple partnered with Hertz while Google partnered with Avis to pursue self-driving technology.

Both Apple and google have new partners in the self-driving car market. Google already signed a partnership with Avis while Apple just signed an agreement with Hertz. What both companies plan to do with these partnerships remains a mystery, but it’s a safe bet that it involves self-driving cars.

Most likely, neither Hertz nor Avis will rent out self-driving cars. What they will likely do is test self-driving car technology to provide data for Apple and Google. Since self-driving technology relies on machine learning, the more data both companies can collect, the better the self-driving technology will get.

Keep in mind that Apple invested $1 billion dollars on China’s ride-sharing service, Didi Chuxing, which provides more rides per day in China than any other ride-sharing service in the world including Uber. Apple likely doesn’t care about ride-sharing as much as they care about collecting driving data from one of the most congested parts of the world. Since self-driving technology will eventually reach ride-sharing services, Apple’s investment in Didi Chuxing simply gives it access to more driving data than any other company.

The leap to self-driving cars will come slowly. For specific uses such as shuttles around a predictable track, self-driving technology can work today. For general use of most people driving around the streets of today, self-driving technology can only work as assisted-driving technology where the driver remains in control, but computers provide assistance when necessary. For example, if the computer determines that your car will collide with another one, it can automatically slam on the brakes.

Assisted-driving will come today while self-driving technology will come tomorrow. Both Apple and Google are simply planning for the long-term future. It won’t pay dividends now or even in the next five years, but it is the future. In the meantime, Microsoft doesn’t appear to have any self-driving technology research going on, which means Microsoft will miss out on the self-driving market when it finally arrives.

It’s not hard to see the future if you only look. What’s hard is looking for the future and then taking time now to plan for it despite not getting immediately benefits. Apple and Google are planning far head. Other companies are not. Can you guess who will survive in the future?

The Self-Driving Car Revolution Will Arrive Slowly

Posted on June 21, 2017 by admin Posted in Hardware, Software Leave a comment

What it is: The University of Michigan is testing a self-driving shuttle.

The fantasy is that self-driving technology is almost ready and that self-driving cars will soon flood the world’s roads. The reality is that self-driving technology isn’t ready for snow-covered roads, detours due to traffic accidents, and dirt roads in rural areas. Just as the Wright Brothers started with a simple airplane rather than build a 747 jumbo jet, self-driving technology is going too tart off slowly until the technology matures.

The simplest way to test self-driving technology is to limit its scope. Rather than put a self-driving car on the road and hope for the best, the University of Michigan is putting self-driving shuttles on part of its campus that has the least amount of traffic. The goal is simply to test self-driving technology within a restricted space to minimize problems while still gathering data on self-driving technology.

Once self-driving cars master a restricted space, then it’s likely self-driving cars will graduate to larger domains such as driving only on certain roads. By limiting self-driving cars to major roads, engineers can gradually overcome problems such as snow, hard rain, pedestrians darting in front of moving cars, and avoiding cars driven by human drivers. Besides limiting self-driving cars to restricted domains, the second way to introduce self-driving technology is to put it in cars as assisted-driving technology.

Instead of a car driving itself, a car can display warnings if a human driver gets too close to another car and automatically brake before an impending collision. Such assisted-driving technology will aid drivers and collect more data for the future of self-driving cars.

The eventual goal is a self-driving car. The immediate goal is to learn the flaws and drawbacks of self-driving technology before releasing them to roam in the wild on their own. Self-driving technology isn’t ready for total freedom and trust from both a technology and social point of view. Can a self-driving car drive itself over a snow-covered road while winds constantly blow snow over the road, hiding the road’s surface? Probably not.

Will people trust a self-driving car? Probably not. At least not until they see self-driving cars working in limited domains or get used to assisted-driving technology in their own cars. Self-driving cars will arrive eventually, but it will take time. Until then, projects like the Apple Car can continue learning and pushing the boundaries of what’s possible. Just don’t expect the possible to become reality too soon.