What it is: This picture shows a minicomputer called a PDP-11, manufactured by Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC), which was one of the largest minicomputer manufacturers in the world at one time.
Here’s how to predict the future. Watch the trends and follow them. That’s it. Most people think that predicting the future is hard. What makes predicting the future difficult isn’t that the facts aren’t clearly available to everyone, but that far too many people deliberately deny the facts right in front of their face until it’s too late.
At one time, mainframe computers ruled the computer market. When smaller companies introduced minicomputers to provide computing power to smaller organizations that couldn’t afford to buy a mainframe, mainframe supporters scoffed at the minicomputers as “toys” that didn’t have the power to match the mainframe computers — and they were right. Because they were right, they felt justified in their belief that mainframe computers were superior to minicomputers.
The problem was that minicomputers filled a need with smaller companies that couldn’t afford mainframe computers. Despite the fact that minicomputers weren’t as powerful as mainframe computers, minicomputers cost much less, were easier to maintain, and could perform useful functions. Many small companies bought minicomputers despite the fact that minicomputers were always slower and less powerful than mainframe computers.
When PCs started to appear, minicomputer supporters scoffed at PCs as “toys” that didn’t have the power to match the minicomputers — and they were right. Because they were right, they felt justified in their belief that minicomputers were superior to PCs.
The problem was that PCs filled a need with individuals who couldn’t afford minicomputers. Despite the fact that PCs weren’t as powerful as minicomputers, PCs cost much less, were easier to maintain, and could perform useful functions. Many individuals bought PCs despite the fact that PCs were always slower and less powerful than minicomputers.
When smartphones and tablets started to appear, PC supporters scoffed at smartphones and tablets as “toys” that didn’t have the power to match the PCs — and they were right. Because they were right, they felt justified in their belief that PCs were superior to smartphones and tablets.
The problem was that smartphones and tablets filled a need with individuals who couldn’t afford or didn’t want the heft and bulk of a PC. Despite the fact that smartphones and tablets weren’t as powerful as PCs, smartphones and tablets cost much less, were easier to maintain, and could perform useful functions especially on the road. Many individuals bought smartphones and tablets despite the fact that smartphones and tablets were always slower and less powerful than PCs.
When wearable computers started to appear, smartphone and tablet supporters scoffed at wearables as “toys” that didn’t have the power to match the smartphones and tablets — and they were right. Because they were right, they felt justified in their belief that smartphones and tablets were superior to wearables.
The problem was that wearables filled a need with individuals who didn’t want to carry a smartphone or tablet. Despite the fact that wearables weren’t as powerful as smartphones and tablets, wearables cost less, were easier to maintain, and could perform useful functions especially on the road. Many individuals bought wearables despite the fact that wearables were always slower and less powerful than smartphones and tablets.
Anyone see a pattern here?
To see the future, just follow the trend from mainframes to minicomputers, to PCs, to smartphones and tablets, to wearables. As long as you keep an open mind, you can easily spot the trends and take advantage of them.
What most people do is get stuck with their favorite technology and then find all sorts of excuses for why newer technology must always be inferior. Just as mainframe computer supporters thought of minicomputers as toys, so did minicomputer supporters think of PCs as toys. The pattern remains the same, but the end result is also the same. People who cling to one type of technology often miss the shifting trends to a new technology until it’s too late.
In the old days, it was easy to see PC software sold in computer stores all over the world. Now it’s hard to find a computer store or software being sold in boxes any more. That’s because most of the excitement (and profits) has shifted from PCs to mobile computers like smartphones and tablets. Soon that trend will also shift to wearables as well. In the Apple world, the trend is away from OS X and towards iOS and watchOS. It’s likely that iOS will also power CarPlay and Apple TV, so you can see the gradual shift from PCs (including the Macintosh) to mobile computers.
If you just follow the trend, life becomes effortless. If you fight the trend, life becomes so much more difficult for no good reason. Given a choice between changing their habits or fighting changing trends, most people prefer to fight any type of change, which can only lead nowhere.
If you find yourself feeling threatened by the mobile computing shift, you either need to hop on the mobile trend now and catch up, or you might as well just roll over and wait to die like a dinosaur. Stopping change is futile. Just as DEC how well they managed the transition form minicomputers to PCs and that’s the future that awaits you if you also wish to avoid changing trends.